Stock Market Crash Probability Estimator

An illustrative model based on key financial indicators.

Go to the 'Indicator Configuration' tab to set the values for key financial metrics and run the estimation.

Adjust the sliders to reflect current market conditions or test hypothetical scenarios. Default values represent a moderately valued market.

Shiller P/E Ratio (CAPE)

Measures long-term market valuation. Higher values suggest higher risk.

28.0

Market Cap to GDP (Buffett Indicator)

Compares total stock market value to GDP. Ratios > 100% are historically high.

150%

Yield Curve (10-Year vs. 2-Year Treasury)

An inverted curve (negative value) often precedes a recession.

0.50%

CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

The "fear gauge." High values indicate market stress and uncertainty.

Market Risk Assessment Report