Stock Market Bubble Burst Predictor

This dashboard displays the calculated risk of a market bubble. Configure the indicators on the next tab to update the model.

Overall Bubble Risk Assessment

Elevated Risk Level

Indicator	Current Value	Historical Avg.	Risk Level

Shiller P/E Ratio (CAPE)

Measures if the market is overvalued compared to historical earnings. Avg: ~17. Dot-com bubble peak: ~44.

Market Cap to GDP Ratio (Buffett Indicator, %)

Compares total stock market value to US GDP. Avg: ~100%. Dot-com bubble peak: ~140%.

NYSE Margin Debt ($ Trillions)

High levels of debt used to buy stocks indicate speculation. 2021 peak: ~$0.9T.

Investor Sentiment (AAII Bullish, %)

Extreme bullishness can be a contrarian indicator. Avg: ~38%. Readings >50% are considered high.

Yield Curve Spread (10-Year minus 2-Year Treasury, %)

A negative value (inverted yield curve) often precedes recessions and market downturns.

This model uses several widely-recognized indicators to gauge market health. Below is a summary of their significance during historical market peaks.

Indicator	1929 "Roaring Twenties" Peak	2000 "Dot-com" Peak	2008 "Housing Bubble" Peak
Shiller P/E	32.6	44.2	27.3
Market Cap/GDP	~90%	~141%	~110%
Margin Debt	High (data less reliable)	Sharply increasing	Reached new highs
Sentiment	Extreme Euphoria	Extreme Euphoria	Optimistic
Yield Curve	Inverted in 1928	Inverted early 2000	Inverted in 2006

*Historical data is approximate and intended for educational comparison. This tool is for informational purposes and not financial advice.