Scenario Planning Input Variable List

Scenario Planning Variable List

Define drivers, uncertainties, and critical variables for your strategic scenario matrix.

Identify the factors that are relatively certain (Drivers) and the factors that are highly unpredictable yet critically important (Uncertainties).

A. Predetermined Elements (Drivers)

These factors are considered largely fixed or highly predictable over the planning horizon (e.g., demographics, known regulations).

ID	Driver Description	Impact/Trend	Action

B. Critical Uncertainties (Key Variables)

These factors will define the scenario matrix. For each, define the two polar extreme outcomes.

ID	Uncertainty / Factor	Pole 1 (Low/Negative)	Pole 2 (High/Positive)	Action

Review the consolidated variable list and the structural framework for your 2x2 scenario matrix.

Consolidated Variable List

Type	Variable	Pole 1 / Impact	Pole 2 / Trend

2x2 Scenario Matrix Framework

The core of scenario planning uses two **critical, high-impact uncertainties** to define four plausible futures. Select two uncertainties from the list above to use as your axes (X and Y).

Pole 2 (High)

Pole 1 (Low)

Scenario 3

Scenario 4

Pole 2 (High)

Scenario 1

Scenario 2

Uncertainty 2: Key Variable Y

Uncertainty 1: Key Variable X