Guild Size to Raid Success Probability Estimator
Estimate raid success probability based on guild size, optimal size, and raid difficulty. Note: This is a conceptual model; real raid success depends on many factors.
Typical raid sizes range from 10 to 40 players.
The ideal number of players for best coordination and efficiency.
The baseline chance of success for an ideally sized group.
Percentage penalty for each player deviation from optimal size (e.g., 1.0 means 1% per player).
Current: 3 (Normal)
Estimated Raid Success Probability:
Important Considerations & Limitations:
- Conceptual Model: This tool uses a highly simplified model. It does not reflect the nuanced complexities of real-world gaming scenarios.
- Optimal Size: The "Optimal Guild Size" is a theoretical value. It varies greatly by game, raid content, and community.
- Deviation Penalty: The "Deviation Penalty" is a linear approximation. Real-world penalties for non-optimal group sizes can be non-linear.
- Raid Difficulty: The difficulty scale (1-5) is arbitrary and its impact on probability is linearly modeled. Actual difficulty scaling in games is often more intricate.
- Other Factors: Crucial factors like individual player skill, gear levels, class composition, communication quality, specific boss mechanics, latency, and even luck are NOT accounted for.
This estimator is purely for conceptual understanding and discussion. It should not be used to predict actual raid outcomes or make critical in-game decisions.